The purpose of monitoring forest landscape change is not only to understand the change of past and present landscape structure, but also to predict the future trend for providing the reference of forest management. This study applied Shannon diversity index, which was related to human disturbance, to qualify the landscape change of Lien-Hwa-Chih Experimental Forest between 1971 and 1998. The t-test based on Shannon diversity index was also used to examine the disturbance differences caused by unlawful cultivated forestland. In addition, the mathematical models such as Markov chain and binomial logit regression analysis were applied to predict the future overall landscape structure and to simulate the spatial distribution of unlawful cultivated forestland. Again, the t-test was applied to monitor the future effect of disturbance caused by unlawful cultivated forestland. The result indicated that, using Shannon t-test, the landscape change between 1971 and 1998 had no differences at the 5% significance level. That is, there was no significant differences about the disturbance caused by unlawful cultivated forestland. The prediction of landscape change in 2052, 2106, and 2160 using the Markov chain model indicated that the area of unlawful cultivated forestland was increased from original 0.90% in 1971 and 3.39% in 1998 to 7.85% in 2052, 12.08% in 2106, and 6.09% in 2160 ,respectively. As for the spatial distribution using binomial logit regression analysis, the result showed that the occurrence of unlawful ultivated forestland had the relationship with elevation, slope, and the distance of road, river, and previous unlawful cultivated forestland. However, it was strongly correlated with the distance of road and previous unlawful cultivated forestland, and less correlated with elevation, slope, and the distance of river. Finally, the spatial simulation of unlawful cultivated forestlands illustrated that the distribution of unlawful cultivated forestlands was gradually expanded, and the disturbance level was differences at the significance level. From the result, obviously the integration of Markov chain and binomial logit regression analysis is a feasible approach to predict the overall landscape change in future and to simulate the spatial distribution of unlawful cultivated forestland. Also, the Shannon t-test is a good way to monitor and assess the disturbance effect of unlawful cultivated forestland on future landscape. The above result can be provided to Lien-Hwa-Chih Experimental Forest for the reference of forest management in order to prevent the occurrence of unlawful cultivated forestland.